September export grows at 11%
Narrowing trade deficit during April-September 2013-14 at US$80bn from US$91bn in April-September 2012-13 is inspiring on expanding exports trajectory and squeezing imports scenario. The export/import ratio is expected to remain steady and favourable in the coming months too on pick up in exports scenario vis-à-vis revival of demand in advanced economies. Rupee is expected to recover further from its current level and consolidate at around 60/US$ by end Dec 2013. The appreciation and consolidation of rupee by Dec’13 will be driven by many factors such as improving capital flows, improving export/import ratio and overall current account balance.
India’s exports for the month of September 2013 stands at USD 27.67 billion with a (Y-O-Y) increase of 11.15% as compared to USD 26.14 billion in August 2013 with a (Y-O-Y) growth of 12.9%. During September 2013, the imports were USD 34.43 billion with a (Y-O-Y) growth of around (-) 18.10 % as compared to USD 37.05 billion in August 2013 with a (Y-O-Y) growth of (-) 0.7%. The balance of trade stands at around USD (-) 6.76 billion during September 2013 as compared to USD (-) 10.92 billion during August 2013.
Value of foreign trade USD billion
Period
|
August
|
September
|
Apr-Sep
|
Exports
| |||
FY 14
|
26.14
|
27.67
|
152.10
|
Growth (%)
|
12.97
|
11.15
|
5.14
|
Imports
| |||
FY 14
|
37.05
|
34.43
|
232.23
|
Growth (%)
|
(-)0.68
|
(-) 18.10
|
(-) 1.80
|
Trade balance
| |||
FY 14
|
(-)10.92
|
(-) 6.76
|
(-) 80.12
|
Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Govt of India
The cumulative figure for the period of April-September FY2014 shows exports at USD 152.10 billion as compared to USD 144.67 billion in April- September FY2013 with a growth of 5.14%; while the cumulative imports for April-September FY2014 stands at USD 232.23 billion as compared to USD 236.49 billion in April-September FY2013 with a growth of (-) 1.80%. The cumulative figure for the balance of trade for the period of April-September FY2014 stands at USD (-) 80.12 billion as compared to USD (-) 91.81 billion in April-September FY2013.
Trend in Exports and Imports (%)
Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Govt of India
Warm regards,
Dr. S P Sharma
Chief Economist
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