Sept WPI inflation grows at 6.5%

Driven by increase in the prices of onion, vegetables, fruits, milk, petrol the WPI inflation increased to 6.5% (Y-O-Y) for the month of September 2013 as compared to 6.1% (Y-O-Y) for the month of August 2013. The Index for Wholesale Prices for the month of September 2013 rose by 1.2% to 179.7 from 177.5 for the previous month.

  Trend in WPI inflation since April 2011                                                                             (Y-O-Y %)

                                                     

Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from the office of the economic advisor to the Govt. of India

 WPI inflation in select commodities

Commodity		WPI Inflation Y-o-Y % growth
		July’13	Aug’13	Sept’13
1	All Commodities	5.85	6.10	6.46
2	Primary Articles	9.68	11.72	13.54
3	Food Articles	12.29	18.18	18.40
4	Cereals	17.71	14.35	13.05
5	Vegetables	46.85	77.81	89.37
6	Non-food Articles	5.71	1.06	5.17
7	Fuel & Power	11.36	11.34	10.08
8	Petrol	1.33	3.18	9.64
9	Manufactured Products	2.60	1.90	2.03
10	Sugar	2.20	(-)4.20	(-)7.49
11	Edible oils	(-)2.23	(-)3.86	(-)2.58
12	Cement & Lime	1.24	(-)3.26	(-)3.16

 Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from the office of the Economic Advisor to the Govt. of India

The build up in inflation in the financial year so far (September 2013) stands at 5.64% as compared to a build up of 4.84% in the corresponding period of the previous year. Buildup in WPI inflation has increased due to rise in the prices of rice, vegetables, onion, fruits, milk, egg, meat & fish, fibers, fuel and power, leather & leather products and rubber & plastic products etc.

   Build up in inflation from March in select food commodities                          (%)

 Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from the office of the Economic Advisor, Govt. of India

Manufacturing inflation rises to 2.03% (weight 64.97%)

The WPI inflation for manufactured products rises to 2.03% vis-à-vis 1.90% in the month of August 2013. The index for this major group rose by 0.7% to 151 from 150 for the previous month. 

 Trend in WPI inflation in manufactured products                                                                          (%)                                                               

Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from the office of the Economic Advisor

Food inflation rises to 18.40% (Weight 14.34%)

Food inflation for the month of September 2013 has increased to 18.40% as against 18.18% for the month of August 2013, on account of increase in prices of onion, vegetables, fruits and milk.

  Pattern of food inflation                                                                  (Y-o-Y %)                Food articles Index since Apr 2011  

     

Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from the office of the Economic Advisor, Govt. of India

The index for food articles group rose by 0.8% to 252.3 from 250.3 for the previous month due to higher price of egg (5%), moong (4%), wheat, gram, maize, barley and mutton (2% each) and condiments & spices, tea, milk, rice, fruits & vegetables, fish-inland, arhar, pork and beef & buffalo meat (1% each). However, the price of poultry chicken (9%), fish-marine (3%) and ragi (2%) declined.

Non-food articles inflation rises to 5.17% (weight 4.26%)

The rate of inflation for non-food articles for the month of September 2013 stands at 5.17% as compared to 1.06% for the previous month. The index for non-food articles group rose by 2% to 213.7 from 209.6 for the previous month due to higher price of guar seed (29%), raw silk (14%), copra (coconut) (7%), cotton seed (6%), gingelly seed, soyabean, raw cotton and coir fibre (4% each), sunflower and niger seed (3% each), rape & mustard seed and linseed (2% each) and castor seed (1%). However, the price of raw rubber (6%), logs & timber and safflower (kardi seed) (5% each), groundnut seed (4%) and flowers (1%) declined.

Fuel & power inflation declines to 10.08% (weight 14.91%)

The rate of inflation for fuel and power for the month of September 2013 stands at 10.08% as compared to 11.34% for the previous month. The index for this major group rose by 2.6% to 207.5 from 202.3 for the previous month due to higher price of light diesel oil (11%), furnace oil (8%), aviation turbine fuel (7%), naphtha (7%), petrol (6%), lubricants (3%), kerosene and bitumen (3% each), high speed diesel (2%) and lpg (1%).

Warm regards,

Dr. S P Sharma

Chief Economist