Saturday 13 July 2013

 
 
All Members,
 
May 2013 IIP declines by 1.6%
 
June CPI inflation rises to 9.87% from 9.31% for the month of May 2013
 
Growth in industry output, as measured in terms of IIP, for the month of May 2013 is estimated at (-) 1.6% as compared with 2.3% during April 2013. The cumulative growth for the period April-May 2013-14 stands at 0.1% as compared to 0.6% in the corresponding period of the previous year.
 
The growth in the three sectors mining, manufacturing and electricity in May 2013 stands at (-) 5.7%, (-) 2% and 6.2% as compared to (-) 3%, 2.8% and 4.2% during April 2013 respectively. The cumulative growth for the period April- May 2013- 2014 in the three sectors mining, manufacturing and electricity over the corresponding year stands at (-) 4.5%, 0.1% and 5.3% respectively.
 
   Recent growth pattern in IIP                                                                               (% growth)
Industry Group
Weight in IIP
Apr- May
Apr-May
April
May
2012-13
2013-14
2013
2013
Mining
14.2
(-) 1.7
(-) 4.5
-3
(-) 5.7
Manufacturing
75.5
0.4
0.1
2.8
(-) 2
Electricity
10.3
5.2
5.3
4.2
6.2
Use based classification
Basic goods
45.7
3.2
0.7
2.1
(-) 0.4
Capital goods
8.8
(-) 15.2
(-)1.5
1.0
(-) 2.7
Intermediate goods
15.7
0.8
2.1
2.4
1.5
Consumer Goods
Consumer goods
29.8
4
(-) 1
2.8
(-) 4
a) Consumer durables
8.5
7.5
(-) 9.6
(-) 8.3
(-)10.4
b) Consumer non-durables
21.3
1.1
6.7
12.3
1.7
Overall IIP
100
0.6
0.1
2.3
(-) 1.6
 
                                                                                                                        
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
    
 
 
 
       Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from CSO
 
 
Basic goods have grown at (-) 0.4% during May 2013 as compared to 2.1% during April 2013. The cumulative growth during April - May 2013-14 stands at 0.7% as compared to 3.2% during the corresponding period of last year. Consumer goods have grown at (-) 4% during May 2013 as compared to 2.8% during April 2013. Consumer durables have grown at (-) 10.4% during May 2013 as compared to (-) 8.3% during April 2013, while consumer non durables have grown at 1.7% during May 2013 as compared to 12.3% during April 2013.
 
The cumulative growth of consumer goods during Apr-May 2013-14 stands at (-) 1% as against 4% during the corresponding period last year. Consumer durables have shown a cumulative growth of (-)9.6% during Apr-May 2013-14  as against 7.5% during Apr-May 2012-13, while consumer non durables have shown a cumulative growth of 6.7% during Apr-May 2013-14 as compared to 1.1% during Apr-May 2012-13.
 
Some of the important items showing high negative growth during the current month over the same month in previous year include Fruit Pulp (-) 51.1%, Sugar (including sugar cubes)(-) 37.8%, Cigarettes (-)35.7%, Polyester Chips (-) 26.6%, Copper and Copper Products (-)67.3%, Boilers (-) 32.9%, Earth Moving Machinery (-) 30.3%, Sugar Machinery (-) 70.2%, Plastic Machinery including Moulding Machinery (-) 48.0%, Computers (-) 33% and Telephone Instruments including Mobile Phones & Accessories (-) 28.6%.
 
Some of the other important items showing high positive growth are Leather Garments (27.0%), Fuel, Aviation Turbine (32.5%), Vitamins’ (75.7%), Antibiotics & its preparations (33.2%), PVC Pipes and Tubes (31.0%), Tractors’ (31.3%), Cable, Rubber Insulated (56.6%) and Gems and Jewellery (31.3%).
 
 
Trend in IIP growth                                                                                     (%)
 
  Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from CSO
 
Capital goods have grown at (-) 2.7% during May 2013 as compared to 1% during April 2013. The cumulative growth of capital goods stands at (-) 1.5% during April- May 2013-14 as compared to (-) 15.2% during April- May 2012-13.
 
Trend in the growth of capital goods                                                     (%)
  Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from CSO
 
 
June CPI Inflation at 9.87%-- The all India general CPI (Combined) for June 2013 stands at 9.87% as compared to 9.31% for May 2013. The inflation rates for rural and urban areas for June 2013 are 9.63% and 10.13% respectively as compared to 8.98% and 9.65% respectively for May 2013.
 
 
Warm regards,
 
Dr. S P Sharma
Chief Economist
________________________________________________
PHD Research Bureau
PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry
August Kranti Marg, New Delhi

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