Compliments:
Great compliments to Hon’ble Minister and Secretary, DOT. India has issued several statements that India will not lag behind on 5G and will lead in IPRs, local manufacturing and catch up with world. High powered Committee and subsequent committees under great leadership has been formed. Some Govt. investment have been committed to some IIT, bodies etc.
Can we give some time to think?
1. Who is pushing 5G
The technology companies, who always come up with a new technology. They look for money. Not the user. Not the telecom operators really, as they lack the business case to justify the investment in 5 G.
None of the Indian telecom companies figure in the list of 303 5G deployments by 20 operators in 294 locations across the globe, though some trials have been conducted and some are proposed in near future.
We need to work out as to how much percentage of India’s population requires 5G and redefine our projected aims and investments.
2. On 5G Standards & IPRs
India has ambition that India be leader in creation of Indian standards for 5G with the help of DOT/TEC/TSDSI/IITs.
Let us see the position on ground.
i) There are close to 1, 00,000 IPRs shared in between Ericsson, Huawei, Qualcomm, Nokia etc. Can we have real Indian value in IPR share? The Ericsson/Huawei/Nokia/Qualcomm submitted close to 48,000/35,000/32,000/18,000 patents.
The declared SEPs are:
China 2081 Huawei 933, ZTE 796, China Academy Tel tech 352
Europe 1093 Ericsson 794 ( Some says 5843) Nokia 299
Korea 1787 Samsung 1166, LG 621
USA 1221 Qualcomm 730, Intel 473( Some says 740), IDT 18 ( Some says 691)
Japan Sony 468
ii) Ericsson said India could lose out in terms of global competitiveness if it opts for local 5G standards as the Country would lose the economies of scale, thereby increasing the prices of networks and devices.
iii) Only one TSDSI patent framed for network capability called Large Cell Low Mobility (LMLC)…..is yet to be approved by 3G PP. Even if implemented this is only one out of so many. Here even COAI objected and blamed the TSDSI for pushing modifications which don't add much value to the already approved local specifications of the global 5G standards LMLC two years back. ( ET 18.2.2019)
iv) Ericsson filed a pioneering 5G patent application already in Q2 2016 which incorporated numerous inventions into a complete architecture for the 5G network standard. This landmark application was the largest patent application ever in cellular communications in terms of the number of inventors (130).
v) The MNCs says that they give will IPR on FRAND basis, which has no legal basis and also is not defined and involved in several Court cases worldwide and within India also. The real answer is that Government goes for COMPULSORY LICENSING.
vi) On 3GPP- the body making 5G standards (Private industry body and not a Govt. body)
· 5G standards without any real consultation with other industries on what their requirements may be. No discussions held with product marketing people, hence no one knows what the actual need is. The industries that would theoretically take advantage of these standards are still not ready for 5G.
· Still awaited the business cases that truly exploit low latency and massive connectivity
· 5G - Release 15 of the 3GPP's specifications- includes a New Radio and a new core- blazing speeds and reduces the signaling delay (or latency) - it remains a mobile broadband technology, unlikely to see much use beyond smart phones, tablets and fixed broadband replacement.
· 5G really needs Release 16….Ultra-Reliable Low Latency Communication (URLCC), guaranteeing latency of just a few milliseconds, compared with the 50 or 60 average now…. precision robotics and automated delivery- Release 16 expected March, 2020. How many can afford delay and what will come?
· And while world wait for Release 16, the 3G PP has initiated work for Release 17: This will include:
o How 5G might better be applied to industrial IoT services.
o How the standard could be used in spectrum above 52.6GHz.
o How automobiles and other gadgets might use 5G in a V2X scenario, and whether they can use a “side link” relay technology for communications.
o Whether the 5G standard can be tweaked for low-power, wide-area applications.
o Ways to make 5G more effective for XR, AR and other such technologies.
India needs to redefine its expectations to become global leader in 5G IPR. Also, if aim is to promote make in India, then India needs to be ready with compulsory licensing, centralized acquisition of technology and distribution to local manufacturers.
3. 5G Network
i) 5G networks suite to provide higher-speed services for residential broadband and smart phone customers. While this would bring additional capacity for congested networks, it seems unlikely to boost revenues.
ii) A few cities and a few hundred cell sites are a good start, but building the tens and hundreds of thousands of cell sites out and then launching new services and accommodating new applications and use cases is where the real value lies.
iii) 5G will need several times of towers and small cells. US passed a law whereby States are duty bound to approve towers. Even in US 25 states have passed small cell legislation that essentially mirrors the FCC’s rule, 25 other states have not passed legislation, including New York and California.
We have seen ROW issues in States. We need to work out appropriate policy to bring States ion board.
4. 5G Spectrum Costs
i) Govt. and regulators across globe are trying to maximize revenues from spectrum auctions instead of considering the macro economic benefits from building out the telecom network. Same true for India.
ii) $ 7.3 Bn. Germany auctioned 5G spectrum to four operators during June, 2019. (300 MHZ of 3.6 GHZ and 120 MHZ of 2.0 GHZ). Competition from a new mobile entrant was also responsible for the outcome. The licenses do come with obligations on coverage.
iii) $ 7.4 Bn. Italian spectrum auction during December, 2018
iv) China handed out 5G licenses without demanding hefty fees in return. Operators are not charged for their spectrum but will be under government pressure to realize coverage targets.
v) India expects INR 6, 00,000 Crores. Operators have been objecting to TRAI recommendations and the same have been sent for revision by DOT. COAI has asked to postpone auction to 2020. Banks are not willing to lend money to operators.
vi) It is said they have 7, 70,000 Crores debts. (Statement made by COAI to FM on 13.6.2019). The service providers are stated to be overstretched with huge debts, declining ARPUs, low return on capital, cut throat competition, purported licensee fees/levies etc. and needs of huge investments in existing and proposed networks.
Indian operators need to be ready to pay such spectrum fees.
5. Number of Operators:
i) Germany included one new operator in addition to existing three. Germany also decided to reserve 100MHz of "mid-band" spectrum for local, industrial use.
ii) UK: Under proposals unveiled at 5G World event in London, Ofcom would reserve 390MHz of valuable "mid-band" spectrum between 3.8GHz and 4.2GHz for local coverage and campus use. If the scheme takes off, anyone could apply for a 5G license covering an area of just 50 square meters and develop their own local 5G network.
Quote: "We want to give low-cost access to local spectrum so that anyone who thinks they need 5G coverage on an industrial campus and feels it isn't served by Mobile Network Operators fast enough should be able to build their own network."
"No one has had the opportunity before to build their own network and we are expecting demand to be in the thousands across the country."
iii) There are some consultations in certain countries regarding ringfencing mobile spectrum for industrial use cases and for operators this is not the correct approach.
We need to think if 5G be limited to existing three operators plus BSNL or extend it to multiple new operators. This is forcefully objected by existing telecom operators worldwide.
6. On 5G Investments required:
i) Huge investment is needed to cover 5G across India. Several figures around 60-70 Bn USD are floating in India for investments needed for fiber, new towers, and new technology equipments. Current BTS capacity will require tenfold expansion. Even Delhi alone may need 6.25 Bn USD. ( Assuming 2500 sq meter area, 50 BTS per sq meter and average cost 50 K USD)
ii) In India only 22% of towers are stated to be linked fiber. (China is 80%). Even NDCP 2018 envisages 60 per cent of the telecom towers to be connected by 2022. The need is 100% for entire 5G Coverage.
iii) Deutsche Telekom, Germany will make annual investment of $6.4 Bn. with aim to cover 99% of population by 2025, even though 80% of network is 5 G ready and 80% of 27,000 mobile sites are connected to fiber.
50,000 more mobile sites to provide a 5G service across the whole of Germany, as signals do not travel as far over these frequencies, or penetrate buildings as effectively, as they do in lower ranges.
Expected to begin providing commercial 5G service in 2020, when handsets are available.
We need to work out availability of such huge investments for 5G from Banks, operator, Government, others.
7. On 5G real speed
i) AT&T announced it will start selling the Samsung Galaxy S10 5G to its business customers for $1,000. Yet "5G+ speeds, where available, will be capped at 2Gbps."
ii) AT&T - 2 Gbit/s in April. (Regular users rarely enjoy peak speeds -- you usually have to stand underneath a cell tower, with no one else using it, to get them.)
We need to make realistic assessment of the speed that can be expected from 5G.
8. On 5G Radiation
i) All talking about technology. No one talking about EMF/radiation. No independent tests carried to assess impact of radiation on birds, human, insects, and environment.
ii) Nobody talking for revision of radiation norms fixed by a private industry body NCRIP in 1998, inspite of well known facts of new technologies & towers are going to be increased manifold, as also proposed IOT, M2M and billions of connections to household products.
iii) In September of 2017, more than 180 scientists and doctors from 35 Countries recommended a moratorium on the roll-out of the 5G until potential hazards for human health and the environment are fully investigated by scientists. The scientists want to make sure that the research is conducted independent from industry or corporate influence.
iv) In 2012, the General Accountability Office found that the existing standards may not reflect current knowledge and recommended that the FCC formally reassess its standards. The FCC’s standards address only one aspect of potential harm from electromagnetic radiation – heat. The current standards do not address other ways in which exposure to increasing electromagnetic radiation from wireless communications can harm human health, as well as the natural systems around us on which all life depend.”
v) WHO on EMF:
The WHO guidelines 2011 and unrevised in 2014 are based on ICNIRP study of 1998/1999. It appears there have been substantial changes in mass base, technology etc., till now. See below:
o In May 2011 the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) evaluated cancer risks from radiofrequency (RF) radiation. Human epidemiological studies gave evidence of increased risk for glioma and acoustic neuroma. RF radiation was classified as Group 2B, a possible human carcinogen.
o The updated WHO factsheet on 8.10.2014 does not change its June 2011 post classification position which explained the IARC classification as ‘…a category used when a causal association is considered credible, but when chance, bias or confounding cannot be ruled out with reasonable confidence.’
o The guidelines are based on International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP). Statement on the "Guidelines for limiting exposure to time-varying electric, magnetic and electromagnetic fields (up to 300 GHz)", 1999.
o Since then, several new pieces of research have been published including a 10-year US study commissioned by the US Food and Drugs Administration, which showed clear evidence of cancer in male rats and some in female rats when exposed to the kinds of radiation emitted from 2G and 3G phones.
o “WHO will conduct a formal risk assessment of all studied health outcomes from radiofrequency fields exposure by 2016,” (NOT YET DONE)
India needs to discuss 5G EMF/Radiation strategy to safeguard environment, human and living beings.
9. On when do we see 5G IOT
i) Berg Insight, the research firm says that the developers will get the first 5G cellular IoT modules this year and will be able to create the first devices that will come to market by the end of 2020.
ii) Berg Insight cautions that 5G won’t be “an instant hit.” By 2023, 5G will account for just fewer than 3 percent of the total installed base of cellular IoT devices.
We need to make realistic expectations from 5G IOT in given period.
10. 5G Cyber threats
i) 5G is not just about faster broadband speeds but promises a `hyper connected’ society with billions of connected IOT devices, which can potentially be the weak link and attract hackers. Large part of 5G networks will be cloud-based, which inherently increases the security risk. Further, multiple software and equipment vendors in a typical cloud environment make it more susceptible to security issues. There would be different owners of applications, software, hardware, networks etc.
ii) In comparison with telecom networks, other business verticals, like financial, energy, and industrial networks, have different or NIL security regulations and standards, data protection norms, and security evaluation standards.
iii) While there is hype for 5G….nobody is talking of Cyber security risks with lots of connected devices? Here they simply say that security risks must be analyzed and taken care of, but nobody is working on that.
iv) The connective power of 5G means a greater number of network endpoints, resulting in more possible openings through which an attacker may penetrate the network. Once compromised, these openings can be exploited at a new speed and scale. Concerns over poorly regulated 5G technology have already led researchers to discover flaw in 5G’s security protocols, allowing cybercriminals to intercept communications and steal data.
v) 5G technology can also enable the weaponisation of IoT devices in botnet attacks. By allowing more devices to connect, 5G can potentially enable them to become part of a malicious botnet, through which hackers can launch more powerful Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks.
vi) 5G means a greater number of network endpoints, resulting in more possible openings through which an attacker may penetrate the network. Once compromised, these openings can be exploited at a new speed and scale. Concerns over poorly regulated 5G technology have already led researchers to discover a flaw in 5G’s security protocols, allowing cybercriminals to intercept communications and steal data.
vii) A group of researchers has revealed the 5G technology has a vulnerability that allows for spying of data over airwaves. The research team from the Technical University of Berlin, ETH Zurich and SINTEF Digital Norway says the vulnerability affects authentication and key agreement (AKA), which ensures your phone securely communicates with cellular networks.
We need to make appropriate strategy to defend the cyber attacks on 5G devices.
11. 5G Costs to customer:
i) AT&T said it plans to charge $70 a month per 15 GB of data on its 39GHz millimeter wave 3GPP-based mobile service.
ii) Customers can use the Netgear Nighthawk 5G hotspot -- with a $499 price tag -- to connect to the 5G network.
iii) Verizon's 4G plan prices range from $75 to $95 per month
We needs to assess the India’s customers capacity to pay for 5G services.
12. Let us see who stakeholders are getting benefit:
i) Whatever hype we see, the fact is that ultimately it would be telecom service providers, who will have to invest in infrastructure/spectrum and provide the 5G network
ii) The role of Government of India is limited to provide regulatory frame work/spectrum and that too based on market open auction.
iii) The role of companies now making hype such as Qualcomm, Ericsson, Huawei, ZTE, Nokia etc. is basically to provide and sell the equipments.
iv) The role of Indian IIT/Research bodies is to take funding from Government and set up research/test facilities.
v) The role of users/customers is to use the facility when available depending upon the price and utility envisage by them.
vi) The event companies supported financially by manufacturers/technology providers will go on organizing the seminars/workshops.
Summary
We hope that the message would be seen and serious efforts are taken in right direction to fulfill the Government’s ambitions for 5G and make in India.
@BorisJohnson
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